Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence from Bolivia

Shifts in late-counted votes often spark unfounded claims of electoral fraud. These exploit the early-count mirage: expedient illusion that, absent fraud, an early advantage will persist. We characterize mirage and evaluate associated fraud four disputed elections, focusing on case Bolivia 2019. When delivered a narrow victory for incumbent, accusations followed—with dramatic political consequences. But we find that vote-share trend can be explained without invoking allegedly suspicious shift was actually artifact methodological coding errors part observers. document similar patterns other three cases. The details are context specific, but core insights general: time trends from legitimate vote-counting processes far more varied—and influential analysis frequent—than election skeptics allege.